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So far in this series of articles, we have covered how handicapping football in the preseason differs dramatically from handicapping any other time of the season, and have provided specific tips involving coaching, motivation, QB rotations, and gameplans. In our final NFL Preseason Football Handicapping article, we're going to discuss some miscellaneous tips regarding pointspreads. More than anything, handicapping is about finding which side, if any, offers "line value". To that end: Play AGAINST a team that won and covered last week due to a factor that is public knowledge and now has nil or negative line value. Don’t expect a clearly decisive factor that’s obvious to everyone to again be the decisive factor in the team’s next game. Players and teams off a great performance can relax and the line will be adjusted due to public perception. The converse is true as well - Play ON a team that lost SU & ATS last week due to a factor that is public knowledge and now has line value. Again, don’t expect a clearly decisive factor that’s obvious to everyone to again be the decisive factor in the team’s next game. Players and teams off a poor performance gain experience and will work hard to correct mistakes, and the line will be adjusted, creating line value. Play AGAINST a team with a line move of more than 2 points in its direction when the move is not justified by circumstances. Many of the usual factors can get quickly built into the line, which leads to tremendous value on the other side. Edges based on information like player rotation are present, but small ones in exhibition play, and when the line moves too far, the edge can turn around. While seeing major line moves creates an image of “steam” with real “inside information” crashing the board, the reality is that it does not take much money at all to move these games. So many sports book operators get nervous at this time of year that not only does a little money move a game a bit, but the notion of moving on air (changing the line because it has moved at other key stores) is quite popular. Therefore a wager based on a small amount of information can turn into a pointspread avalanche, especially when the betting public follows on top of the first move, believing that the “wise guys” really know something. These are still only exhibition games, with most outcomes being decided more on mistakes than on merit, and some are nothing more than crap shoots. Sometimes, though, a crap shoot with line value can be a winning proposition. Play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business. Play ON a team that has the line or "juice" moving against it, despite more money being wagered on its opponent. The biggest sportsbooks sometimes don't move a line based upon the amount of money, but rather upon what they consider sharp money. This "reverse line move" reveals where the smart money is, even if its less overall than the square money. There's a reason it's called "smart" money. Usually, only a huge injury would ever move an NFL line as aggressively as "sharp" activity can move a small conference college line. Bookmakers combat that by adding juice instead of points, but the same principle applies as to where the "smart" money is going. We also like to "Play ON a team that opened as a -3', -7', or -10'-point favorite, especially the -3'" and "Play AGAINST a team that opened as a 2', 6', or 9'-point favorite, especially the 2'". The rationale is explained in a couple of previous PRO INFO SPORTS NFLX STAR SELECTIONS. First, we Tampa Bay and backed the Dolphins, noting: "Looking specifically at the number, we look to play AGAINST teams that opened as a 2', 6', or 9'-point favorite, especially -2'. Three, seven, and ten are the top key numbers in the NFL, meaning more games end with those 3 margins than any others. Three is by far the biggest key number, as more than 16% of all football games end on that margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by X points (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. This means we also look to play ON a team that opens as a favorite a half point more than the closest “key number”. This strategy is 4-0 already during the 2006 NFLX season." On the same night, we also jumped on New England to cover as a favorite against Arizona, citing: Just as we like to fade favorites that opened a half-point under a key number, we look to play ON teams opening as -3', -7', or -10'-point favorite, especially the -3', which is the case here with the Pats...Playing ON teams that opened at -3½ and fading those that opened at 2½ is now 4-0 in NFLX play in 2006. With 2 more victories, that advice improved to a sparkling 6-0 preseason record. We follow up this tip by strongly recommending investors to "line shop" in an effort to find a key number. If one can't be found, ultimately a half-point should only be bought if the spread is at -2' or +3' to get it on the "3". Finally, we conclude with a sampling of our many PRO INFO SPORTS NFLX POWER SYSTEMS: Play AGAINST a favorite off a SU win of 10+ points in its last game and no SU wins before that vs. a sub-.500 opponent off a SU loss of 10+ points. 15-2 ATS Play ON an underdog of 7+ points vs. an opponent off an ATS win of 19+ points. 12-1 ATS Play ON a home team off 2 SU wins in its last 2 games vs. an opponent off 2 SU losses in its last 2 games. 16-4 ATS
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Jerry Fox is the founder of and a professional sports handicapper with ProInfoSports.com. Along with offering his premium expert sports picks and sports handicapping systems, he provides free sports picks, sports handicapping systems, and free sports handicapping tips.
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